Project 5W1H

Who, What, When, Where, Why, How. Context, not rage bait.

A pandemic loan program closed in 2021. Why is about $7.8 billion still owed, and what happens on Dec. 31?

The Canada Emergency Business Account, or CEBA, sounds like it ended with the pandemic. Applications closed June 30, 2021. The loans didn't. The last deadline for paying them back is Dec. 31, 2026, and the government's own books expect a big share of what's left won't come back.

What the program was

CEBA opened on April 9, 2020. Small businesses and not-for-profits could borrow up to $60,000, interest-free, through their own bank. Export Development Canada, a federal Crown corporation, ran it.

According to the Auditor General, $49.1 billion went out to about 898,000 small businesses. If a borrower paid back the rest on time, part of the loan was forgiven: up to $20,000 on a $60,000 loan.

That forgiveness deadline was pushed back more than once, finally landing on Jan. 18, 2024. Anything still unpaid then became a regular loan at 5% interest, with the full principal due Dec. 31, 2026, itself moved back a year from 2025.

Following the $49.1 billion

The Auditor General's report, tabled Dec. 2, 2024, broke it down as of March 31, 2024:

  • $28.1 billion repaid
  • $12.4 billion forgiven on loans that were repaid
  • $0.1 billion written off
  • $8.5 billion still owed

So "83% paid back" is true by dollars, but it includes the forgiven part. The forgiveness was the program's design, not money lost to defaults.

The Auditor General also estimated about $3.5 billion went to ineligible recipients, around 9% of borrowers.

What's still out there

Export Development Canada's 2024–25 annual report says $7.8 billion in CEBA principal was still outstanding on March 31, 2025, plus $302 million in interest owed.

The key line is the allowance for credit losses: $5.4 billion, management's "best estimate" of the principal that may not be collected. It rose $0.5 billion in a year as defaults came in, and the report warns there's "limited historical experience" to go on.

In plain words: of roughly $7.8 billion still owed, the government's books have set aside about $5.4 billion as likely lost. That's an estimate, not a final loss; money is written off only once it's judged uncollectable.

What happens after Dec. 31

Borrowers who can't repay will be asked by their bank for a lump sum. If that fails, the loan goes to the CEBA program and the Canada Revenue Agency helps collect, with payment plans case by case. Unpaid balances can be taken from tax refunds and federal benefits. Collection can run to 2032, the Auditor General noted.

Collections had already started on defaulted loans: in November 2024, Finance Canada counted about 70,000 loans, worth $3.4 billion, with the CRA.

No new extension has been announced; the program site calls deadlines "final."

The cost of running it

The Auditor General found the program wasn't managed with due regard for value for money. One vendor, Accenture, held non-competitive contracts making up 92% of $342 million in contracts, and administrative spending reached $853 million by March 2024 with no overall limit.

What we know, and what we don't

Established: the $49.1 billion total; forgiveness rules and deadlines; the March 2024 breakdown; $7.8 billion owed and a $5.4 billion allowance at March 31, 2025; the Dec. 31, 2026 deadline.

Unknown: how much will actually be repaid after Dec. 31, and how much will finally be written off. The government itself says its estimate could change a lot.

Spin check

Lumping and missing context: "$49 billion in loans" and "83% paid back" both blend repaid money with forgiven money. "Billions lost" treats an accounting estimate as a final loss. The straight version needs all three: repaid, forgiven by design, and still at risk.

Bottom line

A temporary pandemic loan program has a long tail. About $7.8 billion was still owed in March 2025, the government has set aside about $5.4 billion of it as likely uncollectable, and the final deadline is Dec. 31, 2026.

Sources

Researched and drafted with AI help; reviewed and approved by a person.