Is an immigration increase coming? What the targets say, and who sets the next ones.

No immigration increase has been decided. Current targets hold permanent residents at 380,000 a year and cut new temporary arrivals. The 2027–2029 plan is due by Nov. 1; no new targets are out.

What set it off. On Sept. 29, a CTV News headline said "Carney suggests immigration increase is on the horizon." As quoted by The Canadian Press, from a New York Times interview (transcript not seen by 5W1H), Prime Minister Mark Carney said:

"Now the question starts to become, when do we resume some controlled increase in the population, which is the nature of Canada? So that will happen, and we just want to make sure that we've got it under control."

Prime Minister Mark Carney, New York Times interview, as quoted by The Canadian Press

The six questions

Who decides?

The federal government. The Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA) requires the Immigration Minister, now Lena Metlege Diab, to consult the provinces on permanent resident numbers (s. 10(2)) and to table them in Parliament (s. 94). The Act requires tabling, not a vote. Quebec sets its own levels under the Canada-Quebec Accord.

What?

The 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan.

When?

IRPA s. 94 sets Nov. 1 or, if the House is not sitting, its next 30 sitting days. Nov. 1, 2026, is a Sunday.

Where?

New York, per a summary of the NYT transcript; the plan is tabled in Ottawa.

Why now?

The deadline is in law. Per CP, Carney said the system is back "under control"; the minister's office cited sharp drops in new student and worker arrivals.

How?

IRCC consults provinces and territories (ministers met June 23) and the public (a survey closed June 30). The government sets the targets; the minister tables them.

Positions on the question

• The Prime Minister (NYT, via CP): as quoted above.
• The minister's office (via CP), asked whether an increase is planned: the 2027–2029 plan will "ensure immigration remains at sustainable levels."
• Provincial and territorial ministers (June 23 release): want to be "substantive partners" in setting levels and urged larger Provincial Nominee Program allocations.
• The C.D. Howe Institute Immigration Targets Council (Sept. 3): recommends 380,000 permanent residents in 2027, 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029, and a 5% "strict ceiling" on temporary residents.

What the numbers measure

The 2026–2028 plan (IRCC, Nov. 2025):

• Permanent residents: 380,000 a year, 2026 to 2028 (range 350,000–420,000). About 148,000 more, people already in Canada, are outside those targets in 2026–2027.
• New temporary arrivals: 385,000 in 2026; 370,000 in 2027 and 2028. New workers and students only; not visitors, extensions or asylum claimants.
• Stated goals: temporary residents below 5% of the population by the end of 2027; permanent admissions below 1%.

Only 2026 is firm; IRCC calls later years "notional," to be "confirmed or adjusted."

Statistics Canada counted 41,798,407 people on July 1, 2026, up 0.5% in a year. Non-permanent residents were 6.7%, down from 7.2% in October 2024.

5W1H arithmetic: 380,000 is 0.91% of that population; 1% would be about 418,000. 5% would be about 2.09 million people, roughly 690,000 fewer than on July 1.

What's established, claimed and unknown

• EstablishedThe 2026–2028 targets. No 2027–2029 plan was published as of Sept. 30.
• Established"Immigration increase" is the headline's paraphrase. As CP quotes him, he spoke of "population," gave no figures, and framed it as a question of "when."
• Claimed (reports)CP says Carney told the NYT that GDP is shrinking because of limited population growth. That is a paraphrase. StatCan reports real GDP grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026.
• Claimed (reports)Some copies of the CP story give 385,000 and 370,000 as permanent resident targets. In IRCC's plan, those are the temporary-arrival targets.
• UnknownThe full exchange and the question asked. The quote is as CP reported it; 5W1H could not open the NYT transcript.
• UnknownWhether the next plan raises, holds or cuts any target, and when it will be tabled.

History of the policy

• 2001: IRPA s. 94 requires an annual report to Parliament, including next year's projected permanent resident admissions.
• Before Oct. 2024: Plans included a notional 500,000 permanent residents a year from 2025.
• Oct. 24, 2024: The 2025–2027 plan cut 2025 to 395,000, set the first temporary-arrival targets and a 5% goal for the end of 2026.
• Nov. 4, 2025: The 2026–2028 plan set today's numbers and moved the 5% goal to the end of 2027.

What could change it

No new law is needed: the next plan can confirm or change the 2027 and 2028 figures, after consulting the provinces. Changing the tabling rule would take an Act of Parliament.

Sources