Are young Canadians less hopeful about democracy? What the Statistics Canada data shows

A headline circulating since Sept. 29 says "Young Canadians less hopeful about democracy: Statistics Canada study." The study is real and "hopeful" is its measure. But the survey was done April 2 to 22, 2024, and released Sept. 29, 2026, so it predates the April 2025 federal election. The lower hope it found was among adults aged 25 to 44; the youngest group, 15 to 24, was the exception. And "less" means compared with older Canadians in that one survey, not with earlier years.

What StatCan actually wrote

• The Daily release (Sept. 29) does not mention age.
• The full study: "except for people aged 15 to 24, younger adults were more likely to report lower levels of hopefulness."
• Its conclusion: "those more likely to express a lack of hope … included adults aged 25 to 44."

"Less hopeful" fits StatCan's measure; "young Canadians" is broader than its finding.

The numbers (spring 2024)

*Statistically different from ages 35 to 44 after adjusting for other characteristics (p < 0.05), per StatCan. Overall: 12% very hopeful, 71% a little or somewhat, 17% not at all.

Ages 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 did not differ significantly. Ages 15 to 24 were significantly less likely than 35 to 44 to be "not at all hopeful."

Which finding is it?

• Less hopeful: Shown for ages 25 to 44 compared with people 55 and older. Not shown for 15 to 24.
• Less trusting: Trust was reported by level of hope, not by age. Not shown for young people.
• Less informed: Not measured.
• Less satisfied with democracy: Not measured. Hope is a different question.
• Left out or unrepresented: Not measured.

How this was measured

• Survey: Survey Series on People and their Communities (SSPC), Panel 5.
• Who ran it: Statistics Canada. Study by Ian Walker, Samuel MacIsaac and Andrew Canning.
• Sample: 70,000 people targeted, drawn from 2021 Census long-form respondents. It was stratified by region, racialized group and immigrant status, with random selection within each group and oversampling of immigrants and racialized people. It covers people 15 and older in the provinces, excluding the territories, reserves, institutions and anyone who immigrated after May 2021. Results are weighted. The number of Panel 5 respondents is not published.
• Response rate: 24.1% of people who had agreed to follow-up surveys. The cumulative rate was 12.9%. The trust and voting analysis used 3,910 people who answered all five panels (5.7%).
• "Young": No single definition. Results are in 10-year age bands starting at 15 to 24.
• Question (verified in StatCan's published Panel 5 questionnaire): "Thinking about the future in Canada, how hopeful are you about each of the following topics? The way democracy works in Canada"
• Options: Very hopeful, somewhat hopeful, a little hopeful, not at all hopeful. The study combined the middle two.
• Precision: No single margin of error; StatCan gives 95% confidence intervals. For example, ages 25 to 34 "not at all hopeful": 23.6% (18.8% to 29.2%).
• Fielded: April 2 to 22, 2024, online or by phone.
• Comparison years: None. StatCan calls it "a new survey question."

The six questions

Who?

Statistics Canada.

What?

A one-time snapshot of hope about democracy.

When?

Surveyed April 2024; released Sept. 29, 2026.

Where?

The 10 provinces.

Why?

StatCan calls it "a new, forward-looking measure of public trust."

How?

Weighted estimates; regression tests group differences.

Positions

• StatCan's authors: The results "represent only a snapshot," and later events "such as … the April 2025 Canadian federal election—may have influenced the relationships observed."
• The Canadian Press story, as run by CityNews: "young Canadians are more likely to feel hopeless about the future of democracy in Canada than older residents." Its body specifies ages 25 to 44.

Established, claimed and unknown

• EstablishedAdults 25 to 44 were more likely than those 55 and older to be "not at all hopeful." Ages 15 to 24 were not (14.5%).
• Claimed (reports)"Young Canadians less hopeful." Holds for ages 25 to 44, compared with older people only.
• Claimed (reports)British Columbia "led" on "very hopeful." StatCan found "no differences by region" there.
• UnknownWhether hope has changed since April 2024, or differs from past years.

What could change it

Only a repeat of the question, which StatCan says "may be useful," could show a trend.

Sources